Bank of Canada Holds Key Rate for The First Time in a Year
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the key interest rate steady for the first time in a year, at 4.5 per cent. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Global economic developments have evolved broadly in line with the outlook in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global growth continues to slow, and inflation, while still too high, is coming down due primarily to lower energy prices.
In Canada, economic growth came in flat in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.
The labour market remains very tight. Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated. Wages continue to grow at 4% to 5%, while productivity has declined in recent quarters.
Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians. With weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters, pressures in product and labour markets are expected to ease. This should moderate wage growth and also increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers.
Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target.
At its January decision, the Governing Council indicated that it expected to hold the policy interest rate at its current level, conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with the MPR outlook. Based on its assessment of recent data, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%. Quantitative tightening is complementing this restrictive stance. Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases, and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
【加拿大央行 一年來首次維持關鍵利率】
加拿大銀行今天將其利率目標穩定在4.5%, 這是這一年內央行首次停止利率加幅。而央行表示會繼續其量化緊縮政策。
全球經濟發展與1月份貨幣政策報告（MPR）中的前景大致一致。 全球經濟增長繼續放緩，通貨膨脹雖然仍然過高，但主要由於能源價格下降而正在下降。
在加拿大，2022年第四季度的經濟增長持平，低於銀行的預測。由於消費、政府支出和淨出口都在增長，國內生産總值低於預期的主要原因是庫存投資的大幅放緩。限制性的貨幣政策繼續拖累家庭支出，商業投資與國內和國外需求的放緩一起減弱。
勞動力市場仍然非常緊張。而就業增長出乎意料地強，失業率仍然接近歷史低點，而職位空缺則上升。工資繼續以4%至5%的速度增長，而生産力在最近幾個季度有所下降。
通貨膨脹在1月份緩和到5.9%，反映了能源、耐用品和一些服務的價格增長較低。食品和住房的價格增長仍然很高，給加拿大人帶來了持續的困難。隨著未來幾個季度經濟增長的疲軟，産品和勞動力市場的壓力預計將緩解。這應該會緩和工資增長，也會增加競爭壓力，使企業更難將更高的成本轉嫁給消費者。
總體而言，最新的數據仍然符合央行的預期，即CPI通脹率將在今年年中回落到3%左右。核心通脹率的同比指標下降到約5%，3個月的指標約為3.5%。兩者都需要進一步下降，就像短期通脹預期一樣，以使通脹回到2%的目標。
在1月份的理事會決議中表示，央行預計暫時將政策利率保持在目前的水平，條件是經濟發展大致與MPR的前景一致。基於對近期數據的評估，理事會決定將政策利率維持在4.5%的水平。量化緊縮是對這種限制性立場的補充。理事會將繼續評估經濟發展和過去加息的影響，並准備在必要時進一步提高政策利率，使通脹率回到2%的目標。理事會表示央行仍然致力於為加國人民恢複加國價格穩定。
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