Bank of Canada Warns of Higher Rates
The amount of Canadian mortgage debt has been increasing, with a rise of 7.1% ($137.8 billion) in the past year, reaching a total of $2.08 trillion in December. Though growth is slower compared to its peak, it remains high when viewed historically, and is growing much faster than GDP. This growth is expected to have a negative impact on the economy.
The Bank of Canada has cautioned that their current monetary policy may not be sufficient to address the overheated state of the economy, and they may need to implement further measures to tighten it. The BoC aims to maintain an inflation rate of 2%, but the current inflation rate is more than three times higher. To bring inflation back to target, factors such as employment, wage growth, and service price inflation need to be moderated. If these measures do not work, more monetary tightening may be necessary.
Canadian real estate prices have experienced a significant decline, with prices now 12.5% lower than last year, and annual growth being the weakest in the benchmark’s history. Prices have dropped by 17.8% ($154,600) since their peak in March 2022, though they are still 30.9% ($168,400) higher than in 2020. Experts predict that prices may drop further, with a period of stagnation expected.
加拿大的抵押貸款債務額一直在增加，在過去的一年裏上升了7.1%（1378億加元），在12月達到了2.08萬億加元的總額。盡管與高峰期相比，增長速度有所放緩，但從歷史上看，它仍然很高，而且增長速度遠遠超過GDP。這種增長預計將對經濟産生不利影響。
加拿大央行警告說，他們目前的貨幣政策可能不足以解決經濟過熱的狀態，他們可能需要實施進一步的措施來收緊。加拿大央行的目標是保持2%的通脹率，但目前的通脹率仍然高出三倍多。為了使通脹率回到目標，需要緩和就業、工資增長和服務價格上漲等因素。
如果這些措施不起作用，可能需要更多的貨幣緊縮政策。 加拿大房地産價格經歷了大幅下跌，現在的價格比去年低12.5%，年度增長是基准歷史上最弱的。自2022年3月的峰值以來，價格已經下降了17.8%（154,600加元），盡管它們仍然比2020年高出30.9%（168,400加元）。專家預測，價格可能會進一步下降，預計會有一段停滯期。
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